How-to Prioritize Opportunities with the Opportunity Score (opportunity algorithm)

Deciding where to focus is one of the toughest challenges in product and strategy work. With limited time, budget, and energy, how do you know which user problems or needs are truly worth solving?

This is where opportunity scoring becomes incredibly useful. It is a practical, data-driven method for identifying and prioritizing opportunities, specifically the unmet needs that matter most to your users but are not well addressed today.

By quantifying what users care about and how satisfied they are with the current experience, you can surface the areas with the highest potential for impact. In this post, we’ll walk through how opportunity scoring works, why it matters, and how you can use it to make better product decisions.

Key Takeaways

• Opportunity scoring helps identify high-impact opportunities (user needs or problems) by comparing users' importance and satisfaction.

• The opportunity algorithm uses a simple formula: opportunity equals importance plus the difference between importance and satisfaction.

• Implementing opportunity scoring involves gathering user feedback, calculating scores, and interpreting the results.

• Best practices include regularly updating your scoring based on new data and ensuring a diverse range of user input.

• Avoid common pitfalls like overcomplicating the process or ignoring low-scoring opportunities that might still hold value.

What is Opportunity Scoring?

Opportunity scoring is a method to prioritize what to work on next. It helps you identify users need or or areas where users see high importance but have low satisfaction.

Basically, it's a way of finding gaps. You ask your users to rate how important certain opportunities (user need or problem) are and how happy they are with those currently. The bigger the gap between importance and satisfaction, the bigger the opportunity. It's like finding a leaky faucet. You know it's important to fix (high importance), and you're not happy with it dripping all the time (low satisfaction). This prioritization process helps you decide where to invest your time and resources.

The Importance of Opportunity Scoring

Why use opportunity scoring? Because it drives smarter, more user-centric decisions. Rather than relying on assumptions or internal opinions, you're prioritizing based on real user feedback. This increases the likelihood of meaningful improvements, drives user satisfaction, and sets you apart in the market. Addressing unmet needs can improve retention, loyalty, and create differentiation in crowded markets.

Where It Came From: Origins of the Opportunity Algorithm

The opportunity algorithm was first introduced by Anthony Ulwick, founder of the innovation strategy firm Strategyn. It emerged as part of his broader framework known as Outcome-Driven Innovation (ODI). Ulwick developed this approach to help teams take a more structured and measurable path to innovation, centered on what users are actually trying to achieve.

So why is it called the opportunity algorithm and not just opportunity scoring? The term "algorithm" emphasizes the formulaic, repeatable nature of the method. Unlike vague prioritization techniques, the opportunity algorithm provides a specific equation that can be applied consistently across use cases.

While "opportunity scoring" describes the outcome, "opportunity algorithm" refers to the mechanism that powers it. Both terms are often used interchangeably, but the distinction reflects the difference between the process and the result.

How the Opportunity Algorithm Works

The opportunity algorithm is the engine that drives opportunity scoring. It's a simple formula that helps you calculate the opportunity score for each user need or problem or area you're evaluating. Here's how it works:

1. Gather Data: Collect data on importance and satisfaction from your users.

2. Apply the Formula: Opportunity Score = Importance + (Importance - Satisfaction). If the result of (Importance - Satisfaction) is negative, treat it as zero.

3. Prioritize: Rank the opportunities based on their scores. The higher the score, the bigger the opportunity.

Mathematically, this formula gives more weight to needs that are both important and unsatisfied. Here's why it works:

1. Importance serves as a baseline indicator of how much a particular need matters to users. It ensures that high scores only emerge when something is genuinely valued.

2. (Importance - Satisfaction) captures the gap between expectation and reality. The bigger the gap, the more the user is underwhelmed by current solutions.

3. By adding Importance again, the formula ensures that even large dissatisfaction scores only translate into high opportunity if the need itself is critical. This prevents low-importance pain points from skewing prioritization.

4. Setting negative gaps to zero avoids inflating scores for cases where users are already more satisfied than they are concerned, keeping focus on true pain points.

Opportunity scoring isn't just about numbers; it's about understanding what those numbers mean. It's about digging into the data to uncover insights that can drive real improvements and create better experiences for your users.

Key Components of the Opportunity Score

The opportunity score is made up of two key ingredients: importance and satisfaction.

Importance is how much your users value a particular need or problem.

Satisfaction is how well that need is currently being met.

Both are usually rated on a consistent scale from 1 to 5, from 1 being low and 5 being high.

The algorithm uses these ratings to calculate the final score. For example, if a users need or problem has an importance rating of 9 and a satisfaction rating of 3, the opportunity score would be 15 (9 + (9-3)).

Data Sources for Opportunity Scoring

Where do you get the data for opportunity scoring? There are several options:

• Surveys: Ask users to rate importance and satisfaction.

• User Interviews: Gather qualitative feedback to understand the "why."

• Feedback Forms: Collect ongoing input from your website or app.

• Analytics: Spot where users struggle or drop off.

Steps to Implement Opportunity Scoring

Okay, so you're ready to jump into opportunity scoring? Awesome! It's not as scary as it sounds. Here's a breakdown of how to actually make it happen.

Identifying Opportunities

First things first, you gotta figure out what opportunities you're even trying to score.

This isn't just about brainstorming random ideas; it's about digging into what your users actually want and need. Think of it as detective work, but instead of solving crimes, you're solving users problems.

Start by gathering as much data as you can. Talk to your sales team, your users support folks, and, most importantly, your users. What are they complaining about?

You can use surveys, interviews, focus groups – whatever works best for you.

The goal is to create a comprehensive list of potential opportunities. Remember, the more thorough you are here, the better your opportunity scores will be. This is where understanding user experience becomes super important.

Calculating the Opportunity Score

Alright, you've got your list of opportunities. Now comes the fun part: crunching the numbers!

There are a few different ways to calculate an opportunity score, but the basic idea is to weigh the importance of an opportunity against how satisfied users are with the current solution.

A simple formula might look something like this: Opportunity Score = Importance + (Importance - Satisfaction).

You'll need to assign numerical values to both importance and satisfaction. For example, you could use a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is "not important at all" and 5 is "extremely important."

Then, plug those numbers into the formula. The higher the score, the bigger the opportunity. Don't be afraid to tweak the formula to fit your specific needs.

Maybe you want to add in other factors, like the potential revenue impact or the ease of implementation. Just make sure you're being consistent and transparent about how you're calculating the scores. Also, consider using the Top 2 Box method to refine your scoring.

Opportunity scoring isn't a one-time thing. It's an ongoing process. As your product evolves and users needs change, you'll need to revisit your opportunity scores and make adjustments as needed. Think of it as a living document that helps you stay focused on what matters most.

Here's a simple table to illustrate how the calculation works:

Opportunity	Importance (1-5)	Satisfaction (1-5)	Opportunity Score
Opportunity 1	5	2	8
Opportunity 2	4	4	4
Opportunity 3	3	1	5

As you can see, Opportunity 1 has the highest opportunity score, meaning it's the most promising area for improvement.

Real Example

At the Product Discovery & Delivery Vienna Meetup we did a short opportunity scoring live during our talk about product discovery and deliver prioritization.

Here is how the small survey looked like:

and here we had our results from the participants of the survey:

Here we can deduct following priorities from that:

• Networking was a bit underserved during the meetup, so in the next meetup there should be an increased focus on it.

• Learning actionable techniques needs to be increased a bit. Here we assumed that the audience would be more beginner oriented, however that was not the case.

So for the next meetup we would focus on those two topics to serve the participants needs regarding the meetup.

Best Practices for Using Opportunity Scoring

When you're working with opportunity scoring, it's all about keeping things simple and practical. Start by setting up a system that helps you lead scoring tool quickly sift through data to identify where you can really make improvements.

Here are some tips to guide you:

• Review your scoring numbers regularly to see if they still match what your users think.

• Make sure you communicate findings clearly across your team; it helps everyone prioritize user needs without fuss.

• Use users feedback as a common playing field, so you can focus on the heart of the matter rather than guessing.

Consistent review and simple communication go a long way. If everyone understands what the scores mean, decisions get made quicker and with less drama.

Remember, it's not about finding perfection but about being clear enough to drive real action. Keep the process straightforward, and don't be afraid to tweak your approach if something isn't working out.

Also, if you ever feel stuck, check out ideas around scoring thresholds to recalibrate your methods. This way, you maintain a cycle of improvement that directly ties back to what your users want.

What Are the Limitations of Opportunity Scoring?

While opportunity scoring is a powerful tool, it's not without its drawbacks. Here are a few limitations to keep in mind:

1. Quantitative bias: The method relies heavily on numerical inputs from users. If the data is collected in a biased or inconsistent way, the resulting scores can be misleading.

2. Surface-level insight: Scoring captures what users care about and how satisfied they are, but not why. Without deeper qualitative research, you risk solving symptoms instead of root problems.

3. Subjective scales: One person’s "4" on importance may be another person’s "2." Different users interpret rating scales in different ways, which can introduce noise into your data.

4. Ignores business context: Opportunity scores don’t account for feasibility, cost, technical complexity, or strategic alignment. A high-scoring need might still be unrealistic to solve in the short term.

5. Snapshot in time: Scores reflect opinions at a single moment. If user sentiment changes, your prioritization logic should evolve too. Ongoing re-evaluation is key.

6. Directness of questions: The typical survey approach in opportunity scoring relies on direct questions about importance and satisfaction. While efficient, this can limit the depth of insight. Users may struggle to accurately articulate their needs or prioritize them meaningfully when asked directly. As a result, you might miss deeper, more nuanced opportunities that emerge only through exploratory or qualitative methods.

In short, opportunity scoring is a helpful lens, but not the only one. It should be used alongside qualitative insights, team judgment, and strategic context to make well-rounded decisions.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

Okay, so you're all set to use opportunity scoring, right? Awesome! But before you jump in headfirst, let's chat about some common slip-ups people make. Trust me, knowing these beforehand can save you a ton of headaches down the road. It's like knowing where the potholes are before you drive – much smoother ride.

Overlooking Statistical Error

One biggie is ignoring statistical error. Any data analysis worth its salt should tell you the margin of error. The Opportunity Score is super sensitive to this because it gets hit by sampling error, like, three times. Once for the satisfaction score, and twice for the importance score. If you're surveying only a tiny group of people, say 30, your Opportunity Score could be way off, leading you to chase the wrong things. It's like trying to aim a dart with a blindfold on – not gonna hit the bullseye.

Prioritizing Already Satisfied Outcomes

Another mistake? Fixating on stuff that's already good enough. Companies often get stuck improving things they're already great at. It's like adding extra sprinkles to an already perfect cupcake – unnecessary! Instead, focus on the areas where users are actually struggling. This is where you'll find the real prioritization methods to make a difference.

Ignoring Negative Impacts

Sometimes, fixing one thing messes up something else. You might improve one outcome but accidentally make another, more important one worse. It's like patching a hole in your roof but accidentally cracking a window in the process. Always think about the bigger picture and how your changes affect everything else. This is where understanding Kanban system principles can really help.

Don't just blindly follow the scores. Use your brain, talk to your users, and make sure your changes are actually helping, not hurting.

Relying on Gut Feeling Instead of Data

It's tempting to just go with what feels right, especially if the CEO or a key executive has a strong opinion. But that's a recipe for disaster. Opportunity scoring is all about using data to make informed decisions. Don't let opinions and intuition cloud your judgment. Let the numbers guide you. If you don't, you're basically just guessing, and that's not a good way to run a business.

Wrapping It Up

So, there you have it! The Opportunity Score can really help you figure out where to focus your efforts, but remember, it's not the only tool in your toolbox. By using this scoring method, you can spot the opportunities that matter most to your users and where they feel let down.

Just keep in mind that it’s all about balancing importance with satisfaction.

If you find areas where users are unhappy but those opportunities are important, that’s your cue to jump in and make some changes. And hey, don’t forget to look at the other side of the coin too. Areas where you might be pouring resources into things that don’t really matter to your users. In the end, it’s all about making smart choices that lead to happier users and better products.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is opportunity scoring?

Opportunity scoring is a method that helps businesses decide which opportunities (users problems or needs) to work on. It looks at what users think is important and how happy they are with what's available.

How do you calculate the opportunity score?

To calculate the opportunity score, you ask users to rate how important certain problems or needs are and how satisfied they are with the status quo. The score is found by adding the importance rating to the difference between importance and satisfaction.

Why is opportunity scoring important for businesses?

Opportunity scoring helps businesses focus on what matters most to their users. By identifying opportunities that are important but not well satisfied, companies can improve their products and attract more users.

What are some common mistakes when using opportunity scoring?

One common mistake is not asking enough users for their opinions, which can lead to unreliable scores. Another mistake is ignoring the context of the scores, like market trends or user needs.

Can opportunity scoring be used in other areas besides product development?

Yes, opportunity scoring can also be useful in marketing, sales, and other business areas. It helps teams decide where to put their resources for the best results.

What should businesses do after calculating opportunity scores?

After calculating opportunity scores, businesses should prioritize the opportunities with the highest scores for either discovering if they truly matter or directly for delivery. They should also consider shifting resources away from low importance and high satisfaction opportunities.